Achieving net-zero emissions requires energy planners to prioritize investments among competing technologies and strategies. A new study presents a data-validated multi-criteria framework that combines expert assessment with real-world energy data to rank sustainable pathways objectively.
Researchers developed a fuzzy DEMATEL–VIKOR model—a decision-making approach that captures how different criteria influence one another—and validated findings against cross-country energy statistics from the Our World in Data Energy Dataset. The analysis ranked five major decarbonization strategies and identified the factors that determine their success.
Energy efficiency emerged as the highest-priority strategy, achieving the lowest compromise ranking scores (0.00–0.02), indicating optimal balance across multiple criteria. Renewable energy followed closely (0.18–0.20), while electrification ranked third (0.36–0.38). Carbon capture and storage and circular economy approaches scored substantially lower (0.69–0.71 and 0.98–1.00 respectively), suggesting these technologies face greater barriers under current conditions.
The framework identified policy feasibility and technological readiness as the strongest independent drivers of success, with impact values of +1.53 and +0.84. Conversely, economic feasibility and environmental impact scored as dependent factors, meaning their influence depends heavily on other conditions.
Notably, expert-based rankings aligned closely with data-driven results, confirming the framework's robustness. Sensitivity testing showed the core rankings remained stable even when input assumptions varied, providing confidence that the hierarchy reflects genuine performance differences rather than methodological artifacts.
For utilities and grid operators, the findings suggest that efficiency improvements and renewable integration should receive priority funding and regulatory support. While emerging technologies like carbon capture warrant continued research investment, near-term decarbonization gains will likely come from scaling proven, policy-friendly solutions. The framework offers a replicable model for national and regional energy planning that combines technical rigor with practical decision-making.
