A comprehensive modeling study of Guangdong Province's power system examined how external energy shocks affect the province's ability to achieve carbon neutrality. Researchers used an integrated LEAP-NEMO framework—combining energy demand forecasting, generation planning, economic dispatch, system costs, and carbon constraints—to simulate five distinct scenarios through 2060.
Under the baseline pathway (COM scenario), Guangdong's power sector is projected to peak emissions by 2030 and reach net-zero status by 2055. However, three types of exogenous shocks were tested: fossil fuel price volatility, renewable energy uncertainty, and accelerating electricity demand.
The findings reveal markedly different vulnerability levels. Fossil fuel price fluctuations had minimal impact, altering cumulative emissions by only 2.1%. Renewable energy volatility—modeled as reduced wind and solar output—proved far more consequential, increasing cumulative emissions by 73.7% and potentially delaying carbon neutrality beyond 2060. Most critically, demand growth scenarios pushed cumulative emissions to more than double the baseline, representing the most severe decarbonization barrier.
Detailed resilience analysis showed that renewable generation uncertainty degrades system reserve margins most severely, creating grid stability concerns during low-wind, low-solar periods. Demand growth simultaneously strains both emissions targets and capital costs, forcing greater investment in generation and transmission infrastructure.
The research underscores three strategic imperatives for Guangdong and similar high-demand Asian power systems. First, energy storage deployment—particularly long-duration batteries and pumped hydro—is essential to absorb renewable variability. Second, firm low-carbon generation from nuclear power provides critical emission reductions and grid support. Third, demand-side management programs, including load shifting and efficiency improvements, must constrain peak electricity demand growth.
These findings support coordinated investment across storage, nuclear capacity, and demand-response mechanisms rather than relying solely on renewable expansion.
