Hydrogen Demand Projections Overstated Without Proper Accounting

⚡ AI Executive Summary

Hydrogen is already a major industrial chemical, but much of its current demand serves fossil-fuel-dependent processes, fertilizer production and chemical synthesis rather than energy applications. When existing industrial hydrogen use is properly accounted for, the addressable market for clean hydrogen in the energy transition appears materially smaller than commonly assumed in industry projections. This reframing has significant implications for capital allocation in the hydrogen sector. Utilities and grid planners should reassess hydrogen's role in decarbonization roadmaps, recognizing that clean hydrogen economics must compete against battery storage, electrification and other direct-use technologies in most applications. The distinction between replaceable hydrogen demand (in fertilizers, methanol) and locked-in fossil hydrogen use reshapes the investment thesis and timeline for green hydrogen infrastructure deployment.