A comprehensive system-level analysis demonstrates that India's two flagship industrial decarbonization policies—the Perform, Achieve, and Trade (PAT) scheme and the National Green Hydrogen Mission (NGHM)—can work synergistically to reshape the country's industrial emissions trajectory through 2050.
The study, which couples the India Energy Policy Simulator with the energyRt optimization model, reveals a clear temporal division of labor between the two mechanisms. Energy efficiency improvements mandated under PAT deliver cost-effective emissions reductions in the near term, leveraging existing industrial infrastructure and proven technologies. Meanwhile, green hydrogen deployment gains momentum progressively, becoming the dominant abatement pathway after 2035 as production costs decline and manufacturing capabilities scale.
Quantitative decomposition analysis shows green hydrogen contributing approximately 42 percent of cumulative abatement potential through 2050, with PAT-led efficiency measures accounting for 16 percent. This complementary role reflects the different technological maturity and deployment timelines of each pathway. PAT focuses on retrofit efficiency in energy-intensive sectors, while NGHM addresses deep decarbonization needs where electrification or efficiency alone prove insufficient, particularly in process emissions and high-temperature applications.
Economic modeling indicates PAT achieves near-term financial gains through operational cost savings, while NGHM depends on substantial capital investment mobilization to achieve cost-competitiveness by mid-century. Sensitivity analysis highlights the criticality of timely policy intervention and declining technology costs; delays risk locking in emissions-intensive infrastructure that becomes stranded assets.
Key uncertainties include technology cost trajectories, carbon pricing levels, and data availability from small and medium enterprises representing a large industrial share. Process emissions in cement, steel, and chemicals require particular attention given hydrogen's emerging role as a direct fossil fuel substitute.
The integrated analysis demonstrates that coordinated implementation of PAT and NGHM offers a scalable, evidence-based pathway for India's industrial net-zero transition, with early efficiency gains funding later hydrogen investments.
