A comprehensive analysis of Indonesian household electricity consumption patterns reveals important insights into how residential energy efficiency translates—or fails to translate—into actual electricity savings. Researchers applied Stochastic Frontier Analysis to provincial panel data spanning 33 Indonesian provinces from 2010 to 2024, discovering that average household electricity efficiency stands at approximately 83 percent. This relatively modest figure suggests significant untapped potential for improving how efficiently households use electricity.
The study's central finding addresses a persistent challenge in energy policy: the rebound effect. When energy efficiency improvements reduce the effective cost of electricity services, households often increase their consumption to enjoy more comfort, convenience, or amenity. The research quantifies this behavioral response, estimating a 51 percent short-run rebound effect. This means that roughly half of the electricity savings anticipated from efficiency gains are offset by increased household consumption within the first year.
However, the long-term outlook differs markedly. Over extended periods, the analysis identifies a −13 percent rebound effect, representing a super-conservation outcome where residential electricity consumption declines by more than the efficiency improvement alone would suggest. This counterintuitive finding implies that sustained efficiency investments generate lasting behavioral shifts, possibly as households internalize conservation ethics or adjust permanently to new consumption patterns.
The research employed a dynamic panel model with System Generalized Method of Moments estimation to account for lagged consumption dynamics and endogeneity challenges inherent in energy demand modeling. These methodological choices strengthen confidence in the results.
For Indonesian policymakers, the findings support continued commitment to residential efficiency programs, particularly when coupled with demand-side management and behavioral nudges. While short-term rebound effects limit immediate savings, long-term super-conservation effects validate efficiency investments as legitimate tools for reducing household electricity demand and supporting broader decarbonization objectives.
