Heat pump adoption models show regional gaps in load forecasting

⚡ AI Executive Summary

A detailed assessment of U.S. residential heat pump adoption modeling reveals that current projections used in energy system planning exhibit significant regional variation and sensitivity to input assumptions. The study benchmarks a widely-used adoption model against historical data, finding reasonable national-level agreement but systematic underestimation at state and regional scales, particularly in colder climates with established fossil-heating infrastructure. This work exposes a critical blind spot in long-term load growth forecasting. Heat pump penetration is a primary driver of future electricity demand, yet the models informing utility planning and grid modernization often lack regional granularity and rely on incomplete historical datasets. Utilities and grid operators should recognize that national average adoption rates mask state-level variability that directly affects transmission planning, peak load estimation, and demand-response strategy. Improving data collection on equipment sales and fuel-switching patterns—especially in underserved regional markets—is essential to reducing forecast uncertainty and ensuring grid infrastructure investments align with actual electrification trajectories.