Achieving net-zero emissions requires coordinated transformation of both energy and material systems, yet current energy system models (ESMs) operate in isolation from material dynamics, creating a significant analytical gap in decarbonization assessment. A comprehensive review of state-of-the-art models—including FORECAST, IESA-Opt, and IMAGE-TIMER—reveals that while recent improvements have enhanced industrial representation, inter-sector material supply chains remain poorly modeled, leading to inconsistent energy demand calculations.
Material flow analysis (MFA) offers detailed tracking of material stocks, flows, and circularity potential but lacks explicit connection to energy system implications. This disconnect undermines the credibility of climate mitigation scenarios, particularly regarding circular economy (CE) strategies that could substantially reduce material-related energy demand.
Researchers have now developed a conceptual integrated ESM-MFA framework that bridges this gap. The framework identifies explicit interlinkage points between energy and material systems, clarifies their functional roles, and systematically maps circular economy strategies to appropriate modeling components. By incorporating dynamic MFA (dMFA) as a complementary approach, the framework enables consistent estimation of material-related energy use and emissions within broader energy system modeling.
Key benefits include improved alignment of material demand with production timelines, more accurate capture of embodied energy in material supply chains, and better representation of how recycling, reuse, and material substitution reduce overall energy demand. The framework also highlights critical methodological challenges, including data availability for material-energy linkages and modeling complexity across multiple sectors.
The integrated approach strengthens assessments of the energy transition by capturing previously overlooked material system impacts. Organizations developing decarbonization pathways can now incorporate material circularity as a primary lever, not an afterthought, enabling more comprehensive and realistic climate scenarios that account for the full energy implications of material system transformation.
