South Korean researchers have completed a comprehensive validation study of a Typhoon Risk Score (TRS) model designed to guide offshore wind farm site selection in typhoon-prone waters. Using 61 typhoon events recorded between 1978 and 2024, the team extracted standardized parameters—including historical storm tracks, radius of maximum winds, and central pressure—and converted these into a normalized, grid-based risk metric through geographic information systems analysis.
The TRS was then applied to 99 permitted offshore wind projects currently in Korea's development pipeline. Results showed that 14 sites exceeded a high-risk threshold (TRS > 0.7), suggesting that roughly one in seven proposed locations face elevated typhoon exposure that could compromise turbine structural integrity or operational viability.
To ground-truth the model's predictions, the team compiled extreme wind speed observations from nine national marine buoys spanning several years and statistically cross-referenced these measurements against site-specific TRS values. In parallel, they incorporated ERA5 reanalysis data—a global atmospheric model—to extend the temporal coverage and refine extremal statistics. Results demonstrated strong correlation (r > 0.7) between the modeled TRS and observed extreme winds, validating the model's spatial accuracy.
For the offshore wind industry in Korea and similar regions, this work addresses a critical gap: quantifying typhoon risk objectively before capital investment. Typhoons can generate sustained winds exceeding 30 m/s and catastrophic gusts, making site hazard assessment essential for both project viability and safety standards. The TRS provides a practical, reproducible screening tool that balances historical typhoon climatology with modern spatial analysis, enabling developers to make data-informed decisions about project location and design specifications.
