Lithuania's energy transition strategy requires careful site selection for large-scale solar photovoltaic projects that respects environmental protections and existing land uses. Researchers have developed a Geographic Information System combined with the CRITIC (Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation) methodology to systematically evaluate solar development potential across the country.
The framework integrates five key spatial factors: solar radiation availability, topographic characteristics, environmental constraints, agricultural and settlement compatibility, and infrastructure accessibility. Using fuzzy membership functions to standardize diverse data sources, the CRITIC approach then weights criteria based on spatial variability and correlation patterns rather than subjective judgment.
Results show that infrastructure proximity—particularly distance to electrical transmission lines, road networks, and settlements—dominates site suitability calculations. This finding aligns with project economics, since minimizing transmission connections and construction access directly impacts capital costs and development timelines.
The analysis identified only 210 square kilometers of high and very high suitability areas, representing 0.33% of classified territory. These priority zones concentrate in western Lithuania near Klaipėda and Tauragė, and central regions around Kaunas County. The fragmented distribution reflects competing land-use demands and environmental protections across the densely settled nation.
At typical utility-scale plant densities of 40 MW per square kilometer, these suitable areas could accommodate approximately 8.4 gigawatts of installed capacity and generate roughly 8.1 terawatt-hours annually—significant contributions toward Lithuania's renewable targets. Sensitivity analysis confirmed robustness; even under equal-weighting assumptions, suitable areas remained geographically and spatially limited.
This methodological approach offers replicable frameworks for other European nations balancing rapid renewable deployment with landscape preservation and grid integration constraints. The results emphasize that effective solar expansion requires strategic coordination with transmission planning and regional development policies.
