The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), revealing that natural gas consumption by the electric power sector is expected to remain essentially flat this summer before reaching an all-time high in 2027.
For the June through September 2025 period, the EIA forecasts power sector natural gas consumption will average 43.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), unchanged from the same period in 2024 and approximately 4% above the five-year summer average spanning 2021 to 2025. This plateau occurs despite a projected 2% increase in total U.S. electricity demand, a divergence the EIA attributes primarily to accelerating contributions from renewable energy sources absorbing the additional load.
Looking further ahead, the outlook shifts considerably. By the summer of 2027, the EIA projects natural gas consumption for power generation will climb to 46.1 Bcf/d — a 6% increase, or approximately 2.4 Bcf/d above 2025 levels. This would surpass the previous record established in the summer of 2024 by roughly 3%.
The forecast underscores a critical dynamic shaping U.S. grid planning: while renewable capacity additions are sufficient to moderate near-term gas demand growth, they are not on a trajectory to displace gas-fired generation at the scale required to offset broader electrification trends. Gas-fired plants continue to serve as the primary dispatchable resource for balancing variable renewable output.
For grid operators and power engineers, the 2027 projection carries meaningful implications for fuel supply infrastructure, pipeline capacity planning, and seasonal storage strategies. Sustained high gas burn rates during peak summer periods will require close coordination between power and gas markets to ensure supply adequacy and price stability.
